一种粮食消费量动态预测方法

Grain consumption dynamic prediction method

Abstract

一种粮食消费量动态预测方法,依次包括以下步骤:(1)、获取n年度前若干年的粮食消费量和影响因子的值,计算关联度,进入步骤(2);(2)、计算n+1年度的影响因子的值,进入步骤(3);(3)、计算出n+1年度的粮食消费量;需要预测n+m年度的粮食消费量,进入步骤(4);不需要预测n+m年度的粮食消费量,则结束;其中n为能查询到的粮食消费量和影响因子值的年度,n+m为不能查询到粮食消费量和影响因子的值的年度;(4)、返回步骤(1),并使n=n+1,直至得出n+m年的粮食消费量。本发明利用动态的方法结合多元回归分析对我国粮食消费量进行预测,多元回归方程的回归参数不断地发生变化,提高了预测的准确度,可以用于长期预测。
The invention provides a grain consumption dynamic prediction method comprising the following steps in turn: (1) grain consumption and the values of influence factors of multiple years before the nth year are acquired, degree of association is calculated and the process enters step (2); (2) the values of the influence factors of the (n+1)th year are calculated, and the process enters step (3); (3) the grain consumption of the (n+1)th year is calculated; the grain consumption of the (n+m)th year requires to be predicted and the process enters step (4); and the grain consumption of the (n+m)th year does not require to be predicted and the process ends, wherein n is the year of which the grain consumption and the values of the influence factors can be inquired, and n+m is the year of which the grain consumption and the values of the influence factors cannot be inquired; and (4) the process returns to the step (1), and n is enabled to be equal to n+1 until the grain consumption of the (n+m)th year is obtained. The grain consumption of our country is predicted by utilizing the dynamic method through combination of multivariate regression analysis, and the regression parameters of a multivariate regression equation continuously change so that accuracy of prediction can be enhanced and the method can be applied to long-term prediction.

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